Printing Money – A World Cup 2010 Special

My good friend and betting guru, Gavin Horsfall has yet again provided the blog with a betting preview on the greatest tournament in the world. Take it away Gavin!

And so it begins…

Four weeks of wall to wall football with the best players from all four corners of the football world descending on South Africa, for some this will be the pinnacle of an illustrious career for others just another step towards eternal underachievement and mediocrity. 

That last comment wasn’t wholly targeted at England but nevertheless there’s a general consensus that if we don’t do it this year then we might not see it within our lifetimes (especially if you’re the wrong side of 30 like me). The 15/2 (Paddy Power) for a three lions triumph on offer won’t tempt everyone but gambling isn’t always about following your head, if you cant indulge your betting for a bit of patriotic punting once in a while then it’s not much fun.

Even if Capello’s men don’t emerge victorious on July 11th there could still be an opportunity to make some money from England. Skybet go 4/11 for England to win Group C and on the face of it that looks a good price, you’re not going to get rich but we couldn’t have picked a better group to start our campaign, a more profitable route to group success could be to back England to get 9 points from their 3 games at an appealing 2/1(Bwin). The England Top Scorer market is dominated by Rooney (6/4, Betfred), but of all the runners I like Joe Cole (pictured below).

The diminutive front man will be looking for a new club after the summer and the way he finished an injury plagued season suggests he has something to prove. His England record isn’t bad either, 10 goals in 54 appearances coupled with decent showings in 2006 and Euro 2008 and we could quickly find the 33/1 (Extrabet) representing value.

Away from England there are plenty of markets to get involved in. Almost all tastes are covered and if you want a bet on something obscure then it will be catered for. Skybet are running a book on Top Premier League Goalscorer and there are some interesting runners.

Robin Van Persie (5/1, Coral) is an obvious danger, the Dutch always score plenty and recent friendly’s have shown he is fit and ready to go. At a decent price I expect Robinho to go well at 12/1 (SportingBet), ignore his spell at City, he saves his best performances for Brazil as 21 goals in 74 starts proves. He was part of the Brazil side that won last year’s Confederation Cup in South Africa and performed well, if he does get on the score sheet it’s likely Kaka will have passed to him beforehand so get on the 9/1 (Paddy Power) for the Real Madrid star to get Most Assists.

Brazil should be the team to beat in South Africa. Five times winners, they have only lost 3 games in World Cups since Italia 90’. There’s quality all over the pitch that’s both competitive and adaptable, important characteristics in a country hosting a major football tournament for the first time.

They are in a decent half of the draw with Holland potential opponents in the quarter final. The 9/2 (Various) is by far the most appealing price of the leading nations, Brazil will be spurred on further by the prospect of hosting the World Cup in 2014 as holders.

Some of the most comedic markets that caught my eye include Sporting Index spread markets. How about ‘Belly Flops’ – how many players will get booked for simulation? Or ‘Dodgy Keepers’ – how many times will goalkeepers punch the ball instead of catching it? The current spread is 106-112 so if you think those brand new footballs might make keepers punch the ball more often then at buy at 112 could make you rich.

Whatever you do, try to make a point of watching all the games you can, even the ones that don’t really appeal. You can get some good betting clues from the history books but there really is no substitute for sitting down and watching a game, making a judgement on a team and backing your instincts. It’s going to be a fun packed four weeks so sit back, enjoy, and then hopefully go collect…..

Be lucky,

Gavin

http://ghorsfall.wordpress.com/

Thanks Gavin, as usual a great read and if you have a bet based on his advice then let Gaffers Sports Blog know, oh and why you are here pop over and have a vote on who you think will win the World Cup at Gaffers World Cup Poll.

Cheers.

Enjoy the tournament.

Gaffers

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